Exploring the impact of Nebraska’s electoral vote system on presidential elections
Lincoln: If every state used Nebraska’s method for awarding Electoral College votes, Trump would still have won the presidency, but with a tighter margin.
In this system, one electoral vote goes to the winner of each congressional district, plus two for the overall state winner. An analysis showed Trump winning 229 districts to Harris’s 206.
He would have gained 62 electoral votes from winning the popular vote in 31 states, totaling 291 votes—21 more than needed. However, under this system, his victory would have been 291-247, a smaller margin than the current winner-take-all approach.
In the actual 2024 election, Trump won 312 to 226 using the traditional method. The Nebraska Legislature is considering whether to revert to the winner-take-all system, which was in place until 1991.
This past election, Trump secured four of Nebraska’s five electoral votes, with Harris winning one in the Omaha-based 2nd District. Political experts noted that the district system rarely changes election outcomes but does draw more attention to Nebraska.
They believe if all states adopted this method, campaigns would spread out more, reaching areas like California and Texas, rather than just focusing on battleground states.
Interestingly, if this system had been in place in 2012, Romney would have won instead of Obama, despite losing the popular vote. This has led some Republicans to consider changing their states’ electoral vote distribution.
However, many Republicans prefer the current system, as it tends to favor their candidates. Public opinion often leans toward abolishing the Electoral College, especially after Democrats lost the presidency despite winning the popular vote in 2000 and 2016.
In Nebraska, GOP leaders want to return to a winner-take-all system, arguing it would unify the state’s voice and reduce the influence of the Omaha area, known as the “blue dot.” But supporters of the district system argue it gives a voice to diverse political views within the state.
Recent attempts to change the system have been met with resistance, as the current method has brought more campaign attention and funding to Omaha. The latest win for Harris in the 2nd District has reignited calls for change.
State Senator Loren Lippincott has proposed a bill to shift Nebraska back to a winner-take-all system, but it’s uncertain if all GOP senators will support it. Some want voters to decide through a constitutional amendment.
Experts believe that while states can adopt a district system without changing the Constitution, there’s little momentum nationally to abolish the Electoral College, especially with Republicans in control of Congress and the White House.
Changing back to a winner-take-all system could diminish Nebraska’s role in presidential campaigns, as the state has consistently voted Republican for decades. This could be a setback for those wanting Nebraska to remain a focal point in elections.
